The Data Tapes

Setpoint's Bite-Sized Debt Newsletter: February Edition I

The Latest in ABS and Debt Markets

Welcome to The Data Tapes—your biweekly snapshot of private credit and ABS markets. In each edition, we bring you concise updates on debt financings, platform fundraises, data insights, market trends, and the latest from Setpoint.

🚀 What’s New at Setpoint

  • 🔦 ABF’s Risk Reckoning: We hosted a dinner with ABF leaders across banks, funds, and asset managers to compare notes on what’s changing in the industry and where risk is showing up first. Our Co-Founder and CEO Stu Wall captured four takeaways from the conversation, and what they mean for operators and capital providers. Read the blog.

  • 💡 Lessons From a Market Wake-Up Call: Recent failures in asset-backed finance have raised the bar for transparency and control—our Head of Capital Solutions, Bart Steenbergen, breaks down what’s driving this reset and the verification standards lenders need to meet rising expectations from boards, investors, and regulators. Download the whitepaper.

  • 🤝 On the road this winter — let’s connect. We’re attending SFVegas, Feb. 22-25, and we’d love to meet you. Book time with our team.

💸 Debt Financings & Acquisitions

💰️Platform Growth

📈 Visuals

Source: Oaktree

Source: Oaktree

Source: Ridgepost Capital (fka P10) Investor Relations

Source: Evercore

🗣️ Market Commentary

  • “There’s tremendous latency between when problems happen and when they’re found out by the market. There’s been incredible ‘innovation’ for better or worse in terms of hiding those markets in various ways. Hold to maturity, LMEs, or different forms of secondary transactions that allow people to kick the bucket further and further down the road. I think it’s a 2027 to 2032 problem. If you think about leveraged finance, you may not see secondary market bank debt trading down, but you will see that very same company coming to us to factor their receivables or lease their equipment at very high rates or potentially give up certain collateral that they otherwise wouldn’t to keep things going. They alternatively might be part of a secondary transaction that allows it to move along as well. The balloon gets pushed and it comes out in different ways that we haven’t seen before but it’s there “ - Dan Zwirn, Founder, CEO, and CIO of Arena Investors on latency between credit fundamentals and market feedback

  • “We can look into those databases, and we can see exposures, whether the company’s growing. We can see leverage levels. We can see equity coverage. What we’re seeing is defaults are sitting at sub-2%—which is historically their normal low—and dropping. It’s been low, and it’s staying low. It’s actually dropping further. And leverage levels, if we put them in context, are actually not rising. They’re staying flat or dropping, which means equity coverage is also rising. All those data points are kind of flashing green. The opaqueness is what is concerning to people. And that I understand. It’s that you don’t have the ability to look in our database today to see what’s happening in there. But I think there is enough data available around the big points of average lending levels, equity coverage, default rates, etc., that I think are just not showing you that there’s some big crisis on the horizon.” - Erik Hirsch, Co-CEO of Hamilton Lane on overblown fears surrounding private credit

  • “The ABF space, asset-based finance space is the hottest thing that any asset manager is going out to talk about. Our ability to differentiate ourselves where we could actually originate these loans and service these loans gives us a real edge over a lot of competition. So you're going to continue to see, I think, the non-agency space grow. We just got to make sure that not just on us, quite frankly, as an industry, we maintain discipline around credit here.” - Michael Neirenberg, Rithm Chairman, President, and CEO on Rithm’s structural advantages in the ABF market

  • “The tech portfolio continues to be the most pristine amongst all of our portfolios, amongst all of our subsectors. I appreciate we're all looking forward, but remember, these are loans that are on average 30% of the value of the enterprise at the time of acquisition or LTV, with huge equity cushions. These are companies, on average, let's be fact-based as opposed to headline-driven. Since November 2022, the advent of ChatGPT as some kind of moment of AI's arrival, since that time, the portfolio on average has grown revenue 40% and EBITDA 50%. We'll bring it much more current because we can all agree that in November, it was doing poems, so maybe it didn't matter. But let's bring it to this quarter. Fourth quarter, the revenue growth was 10%, and the EBITDA growth in those software names was mid-teens. That's fourth quarter, quarter over quarter. It is not a monolith, and it's listen. This is the opportunity. Obviously, when this happens, of course, markets get deeply disrupted.” - Marc Lipschultz, Blue Owl Co-CEO on Direct Lending exposure to software businesses

📖 What We’re Reading & Listening To

Earnings

Investment & Macro Outlooks

  • 2026 Investment Perspectives (Blackstone)

  • Crescent Private Credit Insights: January 2026 (Crescent)

Reading
  • 2025 Annual FinTech Almanac (FT Partners)

  • AI’s Promise and History Lessons (Guggenheim)

  • AI’s Lending Risk Getting Tougher to Compute (Bloomberg)

  • Easy-Money Loans Backfire on Rookies in the Home Flipping Market (Bloomberg)

  • Hobbit-Inspired Startup Becomes First New Bank Greenlighted by Trump 2.0 (WSJ)

  • How Ares Built an ABF Platform the Slow Way (Covenant Lite)

  • How Fake Invoices Duped BlackRock Unit into a $400M Loan (WSJ)

Podcasts & Interviews